Correlational Analysis

Correlational Analysis
Before beginning this assignment, please watch the following videos on correlation:Correlation –
The Basic Idea Explained
(Links to an external site.)
Correlation Basics

(Links to an external site.)
Study Description: A school educator is interested in determining the potential relationship
between grade point average (GPA) and IQ scores among ninth graders. The educator takes a
random sample of 30 ninth graders aged 14 years old and administers the Wechsler Intelligence
Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV). The WISC-IV includes a Full Scale IQ (FSIQ;
however, for this assignment we will just call it IQ).
Output file: See Week 5 SPSS Output.pdf file
(Links to an external site.)
.
Answer the following Questions:
* Hypotheses – Formulate null and alternative hypotheses. What do you think is the relationship
between IQ scores and GPA?
* Variables – Describe the scale of measurement (nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio) for each of
the variables.
* Correlation – Write an overview of the results of the correlation (at least two paragraphs),
including the appropriate and necessary statistical results within sentences and in proper APA
formatting. Be sure to provide sufficient explanation for any numbers presented. Consider the
following in your overview and conclusions:
* Is there a significant correlation between IQ scores and GPA? If so, what does a significant
correlation mean?
* Using the correlation table and scatterplot, explain whether the relationship is positive,
negative, or no correlation.

*Describe the strength of the relationship (e.g. very strong, moderate, weak, etc.).
* What do the results tell us about your hypotheses?
* What conclusions can we draw from these results? What conclusions can we NOT make using
these results?
Write a total 550 words in response to these questions.
APA format
Size 12 font
Times New Roman
Double Spaced
At least 550 words – not counting the title, abstract and reference page
Can use other scholarly sources IF needed.
Reccomended References:
Benedict K (2014, April 11). Correlation – The Basic Idea Explained [Video file]. Retrieved from
Correlation – The Basic Idea Explained (Links to an external site.)
Diem, K. G. (2002). A step-by-step guide to developing effective questionnaires and survey
procedures for program evaluation & research. Available at
http://njaes.rutgers.edu/pubs/publication.asp?pid=FS995 (Links to an external site.)

Mariampolski, H. (2001). Qualitative vs. quantitative. Qualitative Market Research, 22-25. SAGE
Publications Ltd. doi: 10.4135/9781412985529.n13
Rice, G. T. (2005). Developing high quality multiple-choice test questions. Available at
http://circle.adventist.org/files/jae/en/jae200567043006.pdf (Links to an external site.)
Smith, Lara (2013, November 18). Correlation Basics [Video file]. Retrieved from Correlation
Basics

The first thing you have to do is chose a topic, collect data, and then estimate relationships using the techniques of Chapters of multiple regression and regression analysis: model building.

1. Do not use any of the data sets that come with different textbooks. Too many other people have used those data sets. The data source should to be one that you have actually found and verified.

2. Make sure you explain what you are doing clearly with references. The project/paper will have to be properly written. Make sure you following proper citation rules for any information you got from another source, Only APA style.

3. The sample size should of at least five independent variables. The independent variables should not be part of the dependent variable by construction.

4. The project should involve applying the regression analysis in excel only.

5. Somewhere the project you should have information on relevant descriptive statistics.  Relevant does not mean everything Excel can print out.  At a minimum it should include the mean and standard deviation of the variables involved.  However, you may decide that other statistics might provide useful information (e.g. in some cases, the range of the variables might be relevant).  This information could either be on a separate table of descriptive statistics or combined with regression tables.

6. For the regression tables, as mentioned in the information posted on Moodle, you should not just copy from Excel but instead type proper tables.  You should have a regression table that has both your original model (before you eliminate variables) and your final Model.  The sample projects contain some examples.  Note, you do not need separate tables for the two models.

 

NOTE: REGRESSIONS SHOULD BE RUN IN EXCEL ONLY

Statistics Project

You are to choose a topic for your project.  It may be something related to your job or a special interest of yours.  You need to do the following things:

1. Choose a topic that you would like to use for your project.
2. Develop a hypothesis for your topic. This is some conjecture you would like to test.  You must use two continuous variables and a cause and effect
3. Collect data for your analysis. You need to have at least 50 sets of data.  You will also need to detail how you collected the data. If you intend to use a survey, it must be approved before you administer it.
4. Perform the appropriate statistical analysis on the data. This will include standard measures such as mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance, correlation coefficients and regression lines.  You will need to detail how you examined the data, i.e. grouping, sampling, etc.

5. Create the appropriate diagram(s). This would include histograms, special distributions, etc. You must include a scatter diagram and fitted line plot.
6. Test your hypothesis. This would include indication of the type of distribution, linear regression testing, confidence level of your conclusion, basic statistics, etc.
7. Write up your results. You need to submit the final project that includes all documentation, diagrams, computer printouts, data, survey, etc. You need to state why you chose the tests or analysis that you used.  It is important that state your hypothesis and conclusion in the final project.

 

POINT VALUE: TOTAL                 100 points

Hypothesis                                          10

Data                                                    15

Appropriate Diagrams                     25

Statistical Analysis                             25

Written Summary                             25

An Example of a Topic for the project

This Report will examine the hypothesis that there is a positive correlation between Sat Verbal score and High School GPA.  Data was collected from the Focus database that accompanies the textbook for this course.  The analysis will include charts and diagrams, regression analysis and formal significance testing.

The data was collected from Arizona State students.  Five hundred observations of data were collected, gathering seven different variables for each observation.  Those variables were sex, high school GPA, Sat math score, cumulative GPA, SAT verbal score, age and total hours earned.

A scatter diagram on SAT verbal score and high school GPA indicates that there may be a correlation, but probably not a very strong one.  The regression analysis gives a regression equation of HSPGA = 2.30485 + 0.00158 SATV.  The coefficient of determination, r²  = 7.0 %.  This indicates that only 7 percent of the data can explained by the regression line.  This is not a very good percentage.

The correlation coefficient is .264.  This value is relatively close to zero, which indicates that there really is not a correlation between SAT verbal score and high school GPA.  At the a  = .05 significance level, the test correlation coefficient is .31 and at the a  = .01 the test correlation is .42.  Since there were 500 observations examined.  The results are significant.

A histogram on the high school GPA indicated that most of the students had a high school GPA of 3.0 or higher.  The mean for high school GPA was 3.0271 and the median was 3.0.  The standard deviation on high school GPA was .4981.

For SAT verbal score the median was 450 and the mean was 455.88.   The standard deviation was 82.93.  The histogram on SAT verbal indicated more of the students were in the range of 400 – 450, which is not very good.

The analysis done in this report indicates that there is no correlation between high school GPA and SAT verbal score.  The linear regression indicated that only 7 % of the data is be explained by the regression line and 93% of that data is unexplained.   The scatter diagram shows no real correlation.  From this analysis, the relationship between high school GPA and SAT verbal score cannot be determined.  Analysis of correlation on high school GPA predicting SAT Verbal score should be done.

Statistical Data Representation Memorandum

Instructions

Timberline Health, an integrated delivery system serving residents in five counties in eastern Washington, is considering new opportunities to increase community awareness of the organization’s outpatient health services. As the new business development manager of hearing health services, Jack Andrews is responsible for evaluating the feasibility of marketing activities for the hearing service line and must allocate resources to promotional activities that forecast positive return on investment. One option under consideration is to sponsor the health and wellness pavilion at the Spokane County Fair. Research from comparable markets has shownthat wellness fairs are not only effective at educating communities about potential risk factors for health problems, including hearing loss, but also increasing consumer awareness of new or existing health services provided by local health organizations. These activities are essential to Timberline Health’s mission within the community. Since little is known about the hearing status of residents in the market area, Jack enlists the services of his organization’s epidemiologist, Dr. Ruth Litchfield, to help him evaluate the potential return on investment for this marketing campaign. Dr. Litchfield incorporates several factors into her analysis. She reviews public health data on hearing loss, occupational and age distribution data for local residents, as well as a query of Timberline Health’s patient databases. Based on this research, she estimates the prevalence of hearing loss in the five-county service area at 18 percent, slightly higher than the national average (NIH, 2010). Jack receives information from the fair’s sales and marketing department to help in his calculations. Specifically, sponsorship consists of an investment of $50,000 for the design and production of promotional materials and rental of pavilion space for the duration of the twelve day fair. Data from the previous three years shows on average 250,000 people attend the fair, of which 1% visit the wellness pavilion and participate in health screening services. If Timberline Health is to offer mobile hearing screening, the organization must invest in new portable audiology equipment. Jack receives a quotation from his supplier and estimates the total investment in new audiometers and audiometric booths at $16,000. Timberline Health will use existing diagnostic equipment to test people who have failed the initial screening (i.e. test positive for hearing loss), so it is unnecessary to invest in additional equipment for the hearing centers. Vendor specifications for the screening and diagnostic equipment are indicated in Table 1. Table 1 Vendor equipment specifications Equipment Sensitivity Specificity Portable audiology equipment for free screening 90% 96%   Clinic-based audiology equipment for follow-up diagnostic testing 99% 99% Furthermore, Jack calculates that he must provide coverage for three 6-hour shifts per day and each shift must have three audiologists to meet demand for screening tests. He anticipates hiring nine people to provide coverage for the duration of the fair. The hourly rate for audiologists is $37.50. People who fail the initial screening at the fair are referred to an audiologist for a diagnostic test. Jack assumes in his calculations that all people who are referred for diagnostic testing follow up with an audiologist in one of Timberline Health’s hearing centers. Initial screening tests at the fair are free; however, Timberline Health charges $57.00 for a diagnostic hearing test, which costs the organization $24.00. Using past sales data and industry metrics, Jack forecasts that of the total number of people diagnosed with hearing loss at hearing centers only 20% will purchase hearing aids (NIH, 2010). He reviews sales and margin data from the prior year to identify the product mix for his calculations as indicated in Table 2. Table 2 Sales and margin data Hearing Aids Unit Price 2015 Sales Margin Low-end $1,000 $400,000 25% Mid-range $2,500 $1,250,000 45%   High-end $4,000 $400,000 60% Reference National Institutes of Health (NIH) (2010, October 1). Fact Sheet: Hearing aids. Retrieved from U.S. Department of Health and Human Services: National Institutes of Health: https://report.nih.gov/nihfactsheets/viewfactsheet.aspx?csid=95   Write a Memorandum (no more than 2 pages) addressed to your faculty on the Subject of: Statistical Data representation in the Timberline Health case study  1. Construct a 2-by2 contingency table to determine the total number of people who fail the screening test and will be referred for diagnostic testing in the hearing centers. 2. Construct a 2-by-2 contingency table to determine the total number of people who fail the diagnostic test, which represents the target market for hearing aid sales. ***For each table: list what data (and calculations) you used for the table 3. Explain the significance of Sensitivity and Specificity of Portable audiology equipment and Clinic-based audiology equipment. 4. Explain why Sensitivity and Specificity for the Clinic-based audiology equipment for follow-up diagnostic testing is higher than for Portable audiology equipment for a free screening. **When appropriate, refer to credible resources following APA format. Note:   There is an underlying assumption in this case that the screening and diagnostic tests are independent, such that the first test does not affect the results of the second test even though this is generally not true with a series of tests. The resulting cohort of people who test positive for hearing loss represents the target market or total number of prospects for hearing aid sales from the proposed marketing campaign As a guideline, a 2-by-2 contingency table is constructed in Table TN-1: Table TN-1 Contingency table construction Test result                              Disease (D)               No Disease (NoD)                                               Total   Positive  Negative (a)True Positive (b)False Positive (a + b)  (c + d) (c)False Negative (d)True Negative Total                              (a+c)                                    (b+d)                                         (a+b+c+d) (prevalence)                         (1 – prevalence)

 

 

Statistical Data

Refer to Major Assignment 3 attachments (Major Assignment 3, Major Assignment 3 Details, and
Country List).
Research the country using The World Factbook found on the Central Intelligence Agency
website at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/, other resources such as
the U.S. Department of State website at https://www.state.gov/travel/, and the GCU Library.
Include three or more scholarly resources, including the textbook and The World Factbook.
Use the Country List to help you complete Major Assignment 3.
Prepare this assignment according to the guidelines found in the GCU Style Guides and
Templates, located in the Student Success Center.
This assignment uses a rubric. Review the rubric prior to beginning the assignment to become
familiar with the expectations for successful completion.

Overview:

You and some of your friends want to travel to another country to provide aid in the form of a mission trip. You have been chosen as the team leader, and your job is to provide a plan for the trip, including a financial plan. This is a big job, and you want to do it right, so you and your team have agreed that the trip will take place 5 years from now.

Requirements for the trip:

Who: You and 5-10 other individuals will travel to provide aid.

When: 5 years in the future. The trip will last 2-4 weeks. This is not a large scale, so you should think carefully about what you can accomplish with a team of this size and time frame.

What: This trip’s main purpose will be to fill some sort of tangible need to improve the day-to-day life of the people you meet. Therefore, your first job will be to decide what your team has to offer and to find a location where there is a need for your talents. You should think about what you can do to alleviate human suffering by working in an area of education, health care, basic supplies (such as clothing or home goods), housing, food or clean water, or work to repair the local environment. If you want to include evangelism as a secondary goal, that is fine, but the criteria you will be graded on is how you make a difference in the day-to-day lives of the people you work with.

Where: You will travel overseas. To keep your project manageable, you must choose one of the locations on the Country List, which is included as an attachment to this assignment. Because of the size of the team and your time frame, you should narrow down your area within the country to fit your project. For example, you can’t expect to provide vaccines to the entire country of Brazil, but you could reasonably expect to provide this service to a small town in the country. So you will need to find an area within your chosen country to focus on. The people that you serve in this area are members of your target population.

Requirements for the assignment:

This assignment will have two parts.

Part 1: You create a PowerPoint presentation describing the trip and explaining why the specific country has been chosen. The presentation should have a minimum of eight slides – a title slide, one for each category below, and a reference slide. All important information should be on the face of the slides but you can submit speaker notes for greater detail. In addition, you will need a minimum of three scholarly resources (see the resource list below for ideas) and the presentation should address the following areas:

1. An overview of your purpose for the project: Where are going, and what service will you be providing? Remember, evangelism cannot be the sole purpose of your trip or even the primary purpose.
2. Cultural and social aspects of the country and its population that led you to choose this area of the world.
3. How your choice of project works toward fulfillment of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic ideal to love your neighbor as yourself: How does your personal worldview and the possible worldviews of your target population influence your plans for the trip?
4. Information about your target population: Who are you planning to serve? How does this population compare to the population of the country as a whole? You will also need to do a calculation to project either the general or the target population in 5 years in the spreadsheet but it does not need to be discussed in the presentation. The World Factbook provides population growth data to help you here.
5. Information about the economic situation in your country and how your project will improve this.
6. Possible concerns that you need to keep in mind to keep your team and your target population safe. This could be safety from violence or from health problems (for example, will your team need inoculations to travel to the country).

Part 2: A financial plan for your trip, which you will include in the provided Excel spreadsheet. Your financial plan needs to include the following information:

1. A list of expenses for all members of your trip. This must include the following:
   1. Travel expenses, such as plane or bus fare, passports/visas, local travel within the country. Plane fare can be in U.S. dollars, but the local travel will need to be in the local currency of the country you visit.
   2. Lodging expenses. If you plan to camp, you will include expenses for your camping gear. If you are planning to stay with a host church or host family, you should research the cost of lodging in your target area and provide a per diem donation that is commensurate with the local lodging rates. This will be in the local currency.
   3. Food expenses while you are overseas. Again, if you are being fed by local residents, you will research the approximate cost to feed your group and provide a per diem donation to cover expenses. One way to do this is to research cost of living in your country to find out what a local family would expect to budget to pay for food. Again, these costs will be in the local currency.
   4. Supplies for your project. Provide at least four items that you will need to complete your project. Depending on the nature of your project, these might be in U.S. dollars, or in the local currency, or they may be a mix.
   5. For your expenses that are given in the local currency, a conversion to U.S. dollars.
   6. For each expense, you will use the CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to calculate your estimated expense 5 years in the future.
   7. A grand total of all projected expenses 5 years from now.
2. Funding sources for your trip.
   1. Sponsorship: You are going to assume that you can find a sponsor who can provide 30% of your grand total of all expenses for seed money, and you will invest that money in a savings account for the next 5 years. Research current savings rates and calculate what this amount will grow to over the next 5 years.
   2. Savings: Your team will work on various fundraisers to save for the trip, and you estimate that you can raise $100 a month every month over the next 5 years, which you will also put into a savings account. Using the savings rates you found in part a., calculate what these regular savings amounts will grow to over the next 5 years.
   3. Loan: If your sponsorship and savings totals do not cover your expenses, then you will need to take out a loan for the remainder of your expenses. Even if your sponsorship and savings total do cover all expenses, then you will take out a $10,000 loan for an additional emergency cushion. Research loan rates from two banks, and calculate the monthly payment, total that you pay back to the bank and total interest you will pay for each loan. You will indicate in the spreadsheet which of the two loans is a better choice for you and your reasons why.

Resources

You should plan to use the following resources to help you with your plan. You can also use other resources, but at a minimum, you will need the Excel Budget Spreadsheet, BLS CPI data, and CIA World Factbook. Additionally, your paper requires three scholarly sources.

• Country list.docx: Includes the list of countries you are allowed to choose from for this project, along with some important facts about the country’s make up.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Data information: https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu which is the same as on Worksheet 2.
• CIA World Fact Book: You must use this source. You will find that it contains a wealth of demographic, economic, and cultural information about your country. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
• S. Department of State website: This site will give you important information about your country, as well as information about travel overseas. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages.html
• Excel Budget Spreadsheet: Attached to the assignment directions, and provides a compact way to explain your budget and funding.
• Your course textbook
• GCU Library

Tips and formulas:

• This assignment uses a rubric. Please be sure to look at the grading criteria and point values for each area of the rubric to see how you will be graded on this assignment.
• Compound interest formula (also called the Lump Sum Investment formula) formatted for EXCEL: A = P * ((1 + r/n)^(n * t).
  • A is the accrued amount after t years that the principal, P, grows to at interest rate, r%, compounded n times each year.
• Regular payments formula (also called the Savings Plan formula) formatted for EXCEL: A = PMT * ((1 + r/n)^(n * t)-1)/(r/n).
  • A is the accrued amount after t years of making regular payments, PMT, into an account at interest rate, r%, compounded n times each year.
• Loan payment formula formatted for EXCEL: PMT = P * (r/n)/(1 – (1 + r/n)^(-n*t)).
  • PMT is the payment required to pay off a loan of $P at interest rate, r%, compounded n times per year for t
• Percent change IR = (new CPI – old CPI)/old CPI where IR is inflation rate.

Correlation-Regression Activity

Summer Break

Summer Break is coming and it’s time to make your plans. Below is a list of possible destinations for your trip. Give the following information to assist in planning your trip and finding the information needed for this project.

1. You are leaving from Chicago____________________
2. Date of departure _9^th July, 2020___It is flexible
3. Date of return ___16^th July, 2020__ It is flexible

You are to use the Internet to search for the lowest airfares from your town to the destination on the given dates and find the distance from your airport to that city.

4. Complete the following table of information for your Summer Break adventure. The cost is for one person on a roundtrip ticket. A maximum of two stops in route is allowed, for both directions of the trip.

 

5. The Airline names and Flight Numbers are NOT NECESSARY, you can put them for your own benefit.

 

List the Web sites that you use for your search:

DISTANCES : 1) http://www.webflyer.com/travel/mileage_calculator/    OR

                          2) Use Google….type ‘Chicago to Miami air distance’ and you will get the distance…2394 miles

AIRFARES : expedia.com;Travelocity.com; One Travel.com; Google Flights, or a site preferred by YOU.

 

 

Destination	Round –Trip DistanceX	Airline	Departingflight number	Roundtrip cost(Y)
Miami
San Diego
San Juan
New York City
Cancun
Seattle
Salt Lake City
Boston
Honolulu
Denver  London   Indianapolis   Santa Fe   Cincinnati   Sydney   Rio De Janerio   New Delhi   Nashville   Little Rock   San Jose, Costa Rica

 

5. Make a scatter plot of the distance versus cost. Use the distance as the independent variable on the horizontal axis. Make appropriate scales for the axes.

 

 

6. Look at the scatterplot to answer the following: How is the cost of the trip associated with the distance of the trip?

 

 

 

7. On a scale of 0 to 1, how good does the line fit the data? 0 = no fit and 1 = a perfect fit. Give your estimation of ‘r’.

 

 

 

 

8. Find the value of the correlation coefficient (r) for the data. Compare it to the value of the correlation coefficient that you guessed. How close were you?

 

 

 

 

9. Sketch the best-fit line on the scatterplot above by hand and compare it to the line that you got from the graph. Are they close?

 

 

10. Enter the data for the distances and the costs on Minitab to find y = a + bx; the equation of the least-squares regression line.

 

• Write the equation in terms of relationship between travel distance and ticket cost.  Are there any outliers?  What do they tell us?
• Report the coefficient of determination (R-sq) value in terms of %.  Is it closer to 100%? 50%? 0%?  Based on the percentage value how much can you TRUST the PREDICTION of the future value.
• By looking at the scatterplot and the regression line find a place that is a good buy for the miles traveled. Why do you think the airfare is below the expected value for this destination?
• Talk about the LURKING VARIABLES that may be affecting the value of ‘r’.  What variables could affect the relationship between the COST and the DISTANCE?
• Use the destination identified in question 13 and any information found in this project to write a persuasive essay (50-100 words) convincing your parents/spouse to let you go to your destination of choice for Summer Break.

ARCANE Logistics: Statistics PaperARCANE Logistics 
Introduction
In this exercise, you will use various Excel functions to perform statistical analysis on data, which
will simulate the exploratory data analysis that decision modelers perform before moving on to
more sophisticated analysis. As part of this analysis, you will work with pivot tables to analyze
the behavior of subsets of the data. These fundamental techniques are essential when trying to
make sense of large data sets. Many managers confine their analysis to simple calculations of
average. But knowledge of how variables are distributed and whether or not they are strongly
associated with other variables is as much or more important.

Scenario
ARCANE Logistics is a shipping contractor located in Waco, Texas. ARCANE has a shipping
contract with Bear Industries, which operates three plants in Austin, Fort Worth, and Houston. In
the past nine months, managers at ARCANE have found that there have been an unusual
number of losses on shipments for this customer. Losses from shortage (possibly theft), spoilage
from improper handling, and damage have been reported. Although some loss is expected and
very difficult to prevent, the high number of losses this year does not look random. As a result,
ARCANE has decided to hire your loss prevention team to investigate the causes of these
losses.
Data
For this exercise, use the Shipping Data Excel file, which is located in the same folder as this
assignment.
Part 1: Spreadsheet Analysis
1. Compute correlation between each numerical variable. For this exercise, you should use the
correlation function in the data analysis package. Make sure to include date in your correlations
to identify if losses are trending over time.
2. Highlight any correlation that you think is interesting and then discuss this correlation in Part 2
below.
3. Use the descriptive statistics package in Excel to compute descriptive statistics for each of the
numerical variables in your data set.
4. Study loss behavior. How do individual drivers compare on sum of losses and frequency
(count) of losses? Does this behavior vary by loss code? How about shipping origins or destinations. Do the sum of losses and frequency of losses vary by origin and/or destination?
Use pivot tables to isolate truck drivers, origins, destinations and types of losses. Compute
relevant statistics for each. Look for patterns. Hint: Look at the screenshot below.
The following selection of pivot fields yields losses by driver as shown below.
5. Create any charts that you think would be relevant to illustrate your findings. Possible charts
include histograms, line charts, bar charts, etc. Note: if the chart you would like to create will not
work with a pivot table, copy and paste as values the pivot table to another worksheet. You will
then be able to create your chart from this data.

Statistical Data

Refer to Major Assignment 3 attachments (Major Assignment 3, Major Assignment 3 Details, and
Country List).
Research the country using The World Factbook found on the Central Intelligence Agency
website at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/, other resources such as
the U.S. Department of State website at https://www.state.gov/travel/, and the GCU Library.
Include three or more scholarly resources, including the textbook and The World Factbook.
Use the Country List to help you complete Major Assignment 3.
Prepare this assignment according to the guidelines found in the GCU Style Guides and
Templates, located in the Student Success Center.
This assignment uses a rubric. Review the rubric prior to beginning the assignment to become
familiar with the expectations for successful completion.

Overview:

You and some of your friends want to travel to another country to provide aid in the form of a mission trip. You have been chosen as the team leader, and your job is to provide a plan for the trip, including a financial plan. This is a big job, and you want to do it right, so you and your team have agreed that the trip will take place 5 years from now.

Requirements for the trip:

Who: You and 5-10 other individuals will travel to provide aid.

When: 5 years in the future. The trip will last 2-4 weeks. This is not a large scale, so you should think carefully about what you can accomplish with a team of this size and time frame.

What: This trip’s main purpose will be to fill some sort of tangible need to improve the day-to-day life of the people you meet. Therefore, your first job will be to decide what your team has to offer and to find a location where there is a need for your talents. You should think about what you can do to alleviate human suffering by working in an area of education, health care, basic supplies (such as clothing or home goods), housing, food or clean water, or work to repair the local environment. If you want to include evangelism as a secondary goal, that is fine, but the criteria you will be graded on is how you make a difference in the day-to-day lives of the people you work with.

Where: You will travel overseas. To keep your project manageable, you must choose one of the locations on the Country List, which is included as an attachment to this assignment. Because of the size of the team and your time frame, you should narrow down your area within the country to fit your project. For example, you can’t expect to provide vaccines to the entire country of Brazil, but you could reasonably expect to provide this service to a small town in the country. So you will need to find an area within your chosen country to focus on. The people that you serve in this area are members of your target population.

Requirements for the assignment:

This assignment will have two parts.

Part 1: You create a PowerPoint presentation describing the trip and explaining why the specific country has been chosen. The presentation should have a minimum of eight slides – a title slide, one for each category below, and a reference slide. All important information should be on the face of the slides but you can submit speaker notes for greater detail. In addition, you will need a minimum of three scholarly resources (see the resource list below for ideas) and the presentation should address the following areas:

1. An overview of your purpose for the project: Where are going, and what service will you be providing? Remember, evangelism cannot be the sole purpose of your trip or even the primary purpose.
2. Cultural and social aspects of the country and its population that led you to choose this area of the world.
3. How your choice of project works toward fulfillment of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic ideal to love your neighbor as yourself: How does your personal worldview and the possible worldviews of your target population influence your plans for the trip?
4. Information about your target population: Who are you planning to serve? How does this population compare to the population of the country as a whole? You will also need to do a calculation to project either the general or the target population in 5 years in the spreadsheet but it does not need to be discussed in the presentation. The World Factbook provides population growth data to help you here.
5. Information about the economic situation in your country and how your project will improve this.
6. Possible concerns that you need to keep in mind to keep your team and your target population safe. This could be safety from violence or from health problems (for example, will your team need inoculations to travel to the country).

Part 2: A financial plan for your trip, which you will include in the provided Excel spreadsheet. Your financial plan needs to include the following information:

1. A list of expenses for all members of your trip. This must include the following:
   1. Travel expenses, such as plane or bus fare, passports/visas, local travel within the country. Plane fare can be in U.S. dollars, but the local travel will need to be in the local currency of the country you visit.
   2. Lodging expenses. If you plan to camp, you will include expenses for your camping gear. If you are planning to stay with a host church or host family, you should research the cost of lodging in your target area and provide a per diem donation that is commensurate with the local lodging rates. This will be in the local currency.
   3. Food expenses while you are overseas. Again, if you are being fed by local residents, you will research the approximate cost to feed your group and provide a per diem donation to cover expenses. One way to do this is to research cost of living in your country to find out what a local family would expect to budget to pay for food. Again, these costs will be in the local currency.
   4. Supplies for your project. Provide at least four items that you will need to complete your project. Depending on the nature of your project, these might be in U.S. dollars, or in the local currency, or they may be a mix.
   5. For your expenses that are given in the local currency, a conversion to U.S. dollars.
   6. For each expense, you will use the CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to calculate your estimated expense 5 years in the future.
   7. A grand total of all projected expenses 5 years from now.
2. Funding sources for your trip.
   1. Sponsorship: You are going to assume that you can find a sponsor who can provide 30% of your grand total of all expenses for seed money, and you will invest that money in a savings account for the next 5 years. Research current savings rates and calculate what this amount will grow to over the next 5 years.
   2. Savings: Your team will work on various fundraisers to save for the trip, and you estimate that you can raise $100 a month every month over the next 5 years, which you will also put into a savings account. Using the savings rates you found in part a., calculate what these regular savings amounts will grow to over the next 5 years.
   3. Loan: If your sponsorship and savings totals do not cover your expenses, then you will need to take out a loan for the remainder of your expenses. Even if your sponsorship and savings total do cover all expenses, then you will take out a $10,000 loan for an additional emergency cushion. Research loan rates from two banks, and calculate the monthly payment, total that you pay back to the bank and total interest you will pay for each loan. You will indicate in the spreadsheet which of the two loans is a better choice for you and your reasons why.

Resources

You should plan to use the following resources to help you with your plan. You can also use other resources, but at a minimum, you will need the Excel Budget Spreadsheet, BLS CPI data, and CIA World Factbook. Additionally, your paper requires three scholarly sources.

• Country list.docx: Includes the list of countries you are allowed to choose from for this project, along with some important facts about the country’s make up.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Data information: https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu which is the same as on Worksheet 2.
• CIA World Fact Book: You must use this source. You will find that it contains a wealth of demographic, economic, and cultural information about your country. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
• S. Department of State website: This site will give you important information about your country, as well as information about travel overseas. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages.html
• Excel Budget Spreadsheet: Attached to the assignment directions, and provides a compact way to explain your budget and funding.
• Your course textbook
• GCU Library

Tips and formulas:

• This assignment uses a rubric. Please be sure to look at the grading criteria and point values for each area of the rubric to see how you will be graded on this assignment.
• Compound interest formula (also called the Lump Sum Investment formula) formatted for EXCEL: A = P * ((1 + r/n)^(n * t).
  • A is the accrued amount after t years that the principal, P, grows to at interest rate, r%, compounded n times each year.
• Regular payments formula (also called the Savings Plan formula) formatted for EXCEL: A = PMT * ((1 + r/n)^(n * t)-1)/(r/n).
  • A is the accrued amount after t years of making regular payments, PMT, into an account at interest rate, r%, compounded n times each year.
• Loan payment formula formatted for EXCEL: PMT = P * (r/n)/(1 – (1 + r/n)^(-n*t)).
  • PMT is the payment required to pay off a loan of $P at interest rate, r%, compounded n times per year for t
• Percent change IR = (new CPI – old CPI)/old CPI where IR is inflation rate.

Statistical Data Representation Memorandum

Instructions

Timberline Health, an integrated delivery system serving residents in five counties in eastern Washington, is considering new opportunities to increase community awareness of the organization’s outpatient health services. As the new business development manager of hearing health services, Jack Andrews is responsible for evaluating the feasibility of marketing activities for the hearing service line and must allocate resources to promotional activities that forecast positive return on investment. One option under consideration is to sponsor the health and wellness pavilion at the Spokane County Fair. Research from comparable markets has shownthat wellness fairs are not only effective at educating communities about potential risk factors for health problems, including hearing loss, but also increasing consumer awareness of new or existing health services provided by local health organizations. These activities are essential to Timberline Health’s mission within the community. Since little is known about the hearing status of residents in the market area, Jack enlists the services of his organization’s epidemiologist, Dr. Ruth Litchfield, to help him evaluate the potential return on investment for this marketing campaign. Dr. Litchfield incorporates several factors into her analysis. She reviews public health data on hearing loss, occupational and age distribution data for local residents, as well as a query of Timberline Health’s patient databases. Based on this research, she estimates the prevalence of hearing loss in the five-county service area at 18 percent, slightly higher than the national average (NIH, 2010). Jack receives information from the fair’s sales and marketing department to help in his calculations. Specifically, sponsorship consists of an investment of $50,000 for the design and production of promotional materials and rental of pavilion space for the duration of the twelve day fair. Data from the previous three years shows on average 250,000 people attend the fair, of which 1% visit the wellness pavilion and participate in health screening services. If Timberline Health is to offer mobile hearing screening, the organization must invest in new portable audiology equipment. Jack receives a quotation from his supplier and estimates the total investment in new audiometers and audiometric booths at $16,000. Timberline Health will use existing diagnostic equipment to test people who have failed the initial screening (i.e. test positive for hearing loss), so it is unnecessary to invest in additional equipment for the hearing centers. Vendor specifications for the screening and diagnostic equipment are indicated in Table 1. Table 1 Vendor equipment specifications Equipment Sensitivity Specificity Portable audiology equipment for free screening 90% 96%   Clinic-based audiology equipment for follow-up diagnostic testing 99% 99% Furthermore, Jack calculates that he must provide coverage for three 6-hour shifts per day and each shift must have three audiologists to meet demand for screening tests. He anticipates hiring nine people to provide coverage for the duration of the fair. The hourly rate for audiologists is $37.50. People who fail the initial screening at the fair are referred to an audiologist for a diagnostic test. Jack assumes in his calculations that all people who are referred for diagnostic testing follow up with an audiologist in one of Timberline Health’s hearing centers. Initial screening tests at the fair are free; however, Timberline Health charges $57.00 for a diagnostic hearing test, which costs the organization $24.00. Using past sales data and industry metrics, Jack forecasts that of the total number of people diagnosed with hearing loss at hearing centers only 20% will purchase hearing aids (NIH, 2010). He reviews sales and margin data from the prior year to identify the product mix for his calculations as indicated in Table 2. Table 2 Sales and margin data Hearing Aids Unit Price 2015 Sales Margin Low-end $1,000 $400,000 25% Mid-range $2,500 $1,250,000 45%   High-end $4,000 $400,000 60% Reference National Institutes of Health (NIH) (2010, October 1). Fact Sheet: Hearing aids. Retrieved from U.S. Department of Health and Human Services: National Institutes of Health: https://report.nih.gov/nihfactsheets/viewfactsheet.aspx?csid=95   Write a Memorandum (no more than 2 pages) addressed to your faculty on the Subject of: Statistical Data representation in the Timberline Health case study  1. Construct a 2-by2 contingency table to determine the total number of people who fail the screening test and will be referred for diagnostic testing in the hearing centers. 2. Construct a 2-by-2 contingency table to determine the total number of people who fail the diagnostic test, which represents the target market for hearing aid sales. ***For each table: list what data (and calculations) you used for the table 3. Explain the significance of Sensitivity and Specificity of Portable audiology equipment and Clinic-based audiology equipment. 4. Explain why Sensitivity and Specificity for the Clinic-based audiology equipment for follow-up diagnostic testing is higher than for Portable audiology equipment for a free screening. **When appropriate, refer to credible resources following APA format. Note:   There is an underlying assumption in this case that the screening and diagnostic tests are independent, such that the first test does not affect the results of the second test even though this is generally not true with a series of tests. The resulting cohort of people who test positive for hearing loss represents the target market or total number of prospects for hearing aid sales from the proposed marketing campaign As a guideline, a 2-by-2 contingency table is constructed in Table TN-1: Table TN-1 Contingency table construction Test result                              Disease (D)               No Disease (NoD)                                               Total   Positive  Negative (a)True Positive (b)False Positive (a + b)  (c + d) (c)False Negative (d)True Negative Total                              (a+c)                                    (b+d)                                         (a+b+c+d) (prevalence)                         (1 – prevalence)

 

Correlation and Bivariate Regression 

Correlation tests are some of the most widely used tests; unfortunately, they are also some of the most misinterpreted tests. The term correlation is frequently used in a colloquial sense, but has a very specific definition within the context of statistics. As a critical consumer of research, after this week you will be able to properly interpret the strengths and weaknesses of this specific test.

Perhaps the most exciting part of this week’s activities is the introduction to ordinary least squares regression. This form of linear regression is frequently referred to as the “workhorse” of the social sciences, and for good reason. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests.

In this week, you will examine correlation and bivariate regression. In your examination you will construct research questions, evaluate research design, and analyze results related to correlation and bivariate regression.

Learning Objectives

Students will:

• Construct research questions
• Evaluate research design through research questions
• Analyze correlation and bivariate regression
• Analyze measures for correlation and bivariate regression
• Analyze significance of correlation and bivariate regression
• Analyze results for correlation and bivariate regression testing
• Analyze assumptions of correlation and bivariate regression
• Analyze implications for social change
• Evaluate research related to correlation and bivariate regression

1. Briefly explain the difference between player ability and player performance.
2. Suppose Dustin Pedroia is a 0.300 hitter. That is, his true probability of getting a hit on a
single at-bat is 0.300. We represent his batting ability with a spinner shown below with a HIT
area of 0.300.
Pedroia comes to bat 12 times over the weekend. We can simulate 12 at-bats for Pedroia by
spinning the spinner 12 times and counting the number of times the spinner lands in the HIT
region. We repeated this process 20 times and below are the number of hits that we
observed for these 20 weekends.
4, 2, 5, 8, 1, 5, 5, 0, 2, 4, 5, 1, 2, 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 2, 3

a. Construct a frequency table of these hit numbers and put your counts in the table below:
Number of
hits
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Counts
b. What is the most frequent number of hits Pedroia gets?
c. Find the probability Pedroia gets five or more hits over the weekend.
3. Open the MLB_Attendance_2005_2019.xlsx spreadsheet containing data on attendance per
game for each MLB ballclub compared from 2005 to 2019. In this 14-year span, the average
attendance per game actually decreased from 31396 to 28666, a 2730 person decrease,
which one can postulate is attributed to a gradual sense of disinterest in our national
pastime. Is this average attendance decrease statistically significant? Complete and show
your work in the Excel spreadsheet provided.